Bundesliga · Gameweek 9 · Archived pre-match analysis
Paderborn 2–2 Eintracht Frankfurt
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Paderborn 36.8%
Bundesliga online record: 21 of 36 most likely results correct (58%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 18/36 (50%). See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Draw a 28.4% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Paderborn. The result did not match that outcome. The final score was outside the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 7 Nov 2026, 10:05 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Paderborn are 15th in the Bundesliga with 9 points, while Eintracht Frankfurt are ninth with 11 points. Paderborn’s recent form is DWDLW, compared with Frankfurt’s WLWLD. Paderborn have won 2 and lost 2 of 4 home matches, while Frankfurt have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 away.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Paderborn at home
4 played · 2W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 24 Oct 2026 · Hamburg · 1–0 (W)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Stuttgart · 0–2 (L)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Hoffenheim · 3–1 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Freiburg · 0–1 (L)
Eintracht Frankfurt away
4 played · 1W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.5 scored · 2.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 24 Oct 2026 · Borussia Dortmund · 0–1 (L)
- 10 Oct 2026 · RB Leipzig · 0–6 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Mainz · 3–1 (W)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Union Berlin · 3–3 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Paderborn vs Eintracht Frankfurt: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47.7%Under 52.3%
- Both teams score
- 53.5%No 46.5%
- Predicted goals
- 1.31 – 1.27Total 2.58 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 28% · 27%Paderborn · Eintracht Frankfurt
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (13.5%), but more scorelines end in Paderborn winning, so that is the most likely result (36.8%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73.9% | 26.1% |
| 2.5 | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| 3.5 | 26.0% | 74.0% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Paderborn to score 1.31 goals and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.27. Its ratings have Paderborn scoring at 0.74 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 0.82 times, against 1.17 and 1.06 for Eintracht Frankfurt. Full methodology.
Questions about Paderborn vs Eintracht Frankfurt
What was the Paderborn vs Eintracht Frankfurt result?
Paderborn 2–2 Eintracht Frankfurt at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Paderborn vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-06T12:58:13.789737+00:00, before kickoff, gave Paderborn 36.7%, a draw 28.3% and Eintracht Frankfurt 35.0%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Paderborn vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
The forecast published at 2026-11-07T10:05:13.570497+00:00 estimated 1.31 goals for Paderborn and 1.27 for Eintracht Frankfurt (2.58 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (13.5%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-07
- Matches used
- 3,646
- Model version
- dc-v4-3ad8df6c0c2e
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Bundesliga season outlook →