Bundesliga · Gameweek 9 · Archived pre-match analysis
Stuttgart 1–0 Werder Bremen
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Stuttgart 60.6%
Bundesliga online record: 21 of 36 most likely results correct (58%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 18/36 (50%). See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Stuttgart a 60.6% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Stuttgart. The result matched that outcome. The final score ranked #5 in the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 7 Nov 2026, 14:51 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Stuttgart are 12th with 9 points, while Werder Bremen are 5th with 15 points. Stuttgart’s recent form is WLLWL, compared with Werder Bremen’s WWDDW. Across 36 meetings, Stuttgart have 13 wins, Werder Bremen 11 and there have been 12 draws. The last meeting ended 1-1 on 26 Apr 2026.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Stuttgart at home
3 played · 1W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 1.7 conceded
Results in this sample
- 23 Oct 2026 · Borussia Monchengladbach · 2–3 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Borussia Dortmund · 0–1 (L)
- 4 Sept 2026 · Fc Cologne · 4–1 (W)
Werder Bremen away
4 played · 1W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 2.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 24 Oct 2026 · Mainz · 3–2 (W)
- 9 Oct 2026 · Borussia Dortmund · 2–2 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Fc Cologne · 1–1 (D)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Freiburg · 1–4 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66.6%Under 33.4%
- Both teams score
- 62.7%No 37.3%
- Predicted goals
- 2.24 – 1.19Total 3.43 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 31% · 11%Stuttgart · Werder Bremen
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 2–1, happens only 9.7% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86.3% | 13.7% |
| 2.5 | 66.6% | 33.4% |
| 3.5 | 44.8% | 55.2% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Stuttgart to score 2.24 goals and Werder Bremen 1.19. Its ratings have Stuttgart scoring at 1.31 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 0.92 times, against 0.98 and 1.03 for Werder Bremen. Full methodology.
Questions about Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen
What was the Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen result?
Stuttgart 1–0 Werder Bremen at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-06T17:06:03.764366+00:00, before kickoff, gave Stuttgart 60.5%, a draw 20.9% and Werder Bremen 18.6%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?
The forecast published at 2026-11-07T14:51:33.359133+00:00 estimated 2.24 goals for Stuttgart and 1.19 for Werder Bremen (3.43 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 2–1 (9.7%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-07
- Matches used
- 3,646
- Model version
- dc-v4-0807966edf9d
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Bundesliga season outlook →