Bundesliga · Gameweek 9 · Archived pre-match analysis
FC Cologne 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Bayer Leverkusen 52.2%
Bundesliga online record: 21 of 36 most likely results correct (58%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 18/36 (50%). See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Bayer Leverkusen a 52.2% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Bayer Leverkusen. The result matched that outcome. The final score ranked #2 in the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 8 Nov 2026, 12:05 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
FC Cologne are 15th on 9 points, while Bayer Leverkusen are sixth on 13 points. Cologne’s recent form is DDLWL, compared with Leverkusen’s LLWWW. In 30 meetings, Cologne have won 7 and Leverkusen 18, with the last meeting ending FC Cologne 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen on 25 Apr 2026. Cologne are unbeaten at home in 4 matches, while Leverkusen have won 1 of 4 away.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
FC Cologne at home
4 played · 2W · 2D · 0L
Goals per match: 1.5 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 24 Oct 2026 · Schalke · 0–0 (D)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Borussia Monchengladbach · 2–1 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Werder Bremen · 1–1 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Hoffenheim · 3–2 (W)
Bayer Leverkusen away
4 played · 1W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 2.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 25 Oct 2026 · Hoffenheim · 0–3 (L)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Mainz · 4–3 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Augsburg · 2–2 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Elversberg · 2–3 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
FC Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62.4%Under 37.6%
- Both teams score
- 62.5%No 37.5%
- Predicted goals
- 1.28 – 1.94Total 3.22 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 14% · 28%FC Cologne · Bayer Leverkusen
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (10.6%), but more scorelines end in Bayer Leverkusen winning, so that is the most likely result (52.2%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83.8% | 16.2% |
| 2.5 | 62.4% | 37.6% |
| 3.5 | 40.2% | 59.8% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects FC Cologne to score 1.28 goals and Bayer Leverkusen 1.94. Its ratings have FC Cologne scoring at 0.89 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 1.06 times, against 1.38 and 0.86 for Bayer Leverkusen. Full methodology.
Questions about FC Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen
What was the FC Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen result?
FC Cologne 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for FC Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-07T10:05:13.570497+00:00, before kickoff, gave FC Cologne 24.2%, a draw 23.5% and Bayer Leverkusen 52.3%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for FC Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen?
The forecast published at 2026-11-08T12:05:23.352519+00:00 estimated 1.28 goals for FC Cologne and 1.94 for Bayer Leverkusen (3.22 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (10.6%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-08
- Matches used
- 3,651
- Model version
- dc-v4-b20a78aada6e
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Bundesliga season outlook →