Bundesliga · Gameweek 9 · Archived pre-match analysis
Freiburg 2–0 Union Berlin
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Freiburg 55.4%
Bundesliga online record: 21 of 36 most likely results correct (58%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 18/36 (50%). See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Freiburg a 55.4% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Freiburg. The result matched that outcome. The final score ranked #4 in the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 8 Nov 2026, 16:21 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Freiburg are fourth in the Bundesliga with 16 points from 8 matches, while Union Berlin are 16th with 7 points. Freiburg's recent form is WLLWD; Union Berlin's is DDDWL. Freiburg have won 3 of 4 home matches, while Union Berlin have won 0 of 3 away. Union Berlin won the last meeting 1-0 on 15 Mar 2026.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Freiburg at home
5 played · 4W · 0D · 1L
Goals per match: 3.2 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 25 Oct 2026 · Bayern Munich · 1–3 (L)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Schalke · 2–1 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Borussia Monchengladbach · 5–0 (W)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Werder Bremen · 4–1 (W)
- 16 May 2026 · RB Leipzig · 4–1 (W)
Union Berlin away
3 played · 0W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.3 scored · 4.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 24 Oct 2026 · Augsburg · 1–1 (D)
- 18 Sept 2026 · Bayern Munich · 0–7 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Bayer Leverkusen · 0–4 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Freiburg vs Union Berlin: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54.3%Under 45.7%
- Both teams score
- 54.6%No 45.4%
- Predicted goals
- 1.83 – 1.02Total 2.85 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 36% · 16%Freiburg · Union Berlin
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (11.6%), but more scorelines end in Freiburg winning, so that is the most likely result (55.4%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78.5% | 21.4% |
| 2.5 | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| 3.5 | 32.0% | 68.0% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Freiburg to score 1.83 goals and Union Berlin 1.02. Its ratings have Freiburg scoring at 1.08 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 0.95 times, against 0.82 and 1.01 for Union Berlin. Full methodology.
Questions about Freiburg vs Union Berlin
What was the Freiburg vs Union Berlin result?
Freiburg 2–0 Union Berlin at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-07T14:51:33.359133+00:00, before kickoff, gave Freiburg 55.3%, a draw 24.4% and Union Berlin 20.2%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
The forecast published at 2026-11-08T16:21:20.913477+00:00 estimated 1.83 goals for Freiburg and 1.02 for Union Berlin (2.85 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (11.6%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-08
- Matches used
- 3,651
- Model version
- dc-v4-a3c445bd576c
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Bundesliga season outlook →