Bundesliga · Gameweek 9 · Archived pre-match analysis
Hoffenheim 2–1 Schalke
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Hoffenheim 55.3%
Bundesliga online record: 21 of 36 most likely results correct (58%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 18/36 (50%). See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Hoffenheim a 55.3% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Hoffenheim. The result matched that outcome. The final score ranked #4 in the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 8 Nov 2026, 16:21 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Hoffenheim are 14th with 9 points after 8 matches, while Schalke are 17th with 6 points. Hoffenheim’s recent form is LWWLL, compared with Schalke’s LDLLD. Hoffenheim have won 12 of 28 meetings, with Schalke winning 9 and 7 draws; Hoffenheim won the last meeting 2-0 on 9 Apr 2023. At home, Hoffenheim have 2 wins and 2 losses from 4, while Schalke have 1 win, 1 draw and 2 losses away.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Hoffenheim at home
4 played · 2W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 2.3 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 25 Oct 2026 · Bayer Leverkusen · 3–0 (W)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Hamburg · 2–3 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Stuttgart · 2–1 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Borussia Dortmund · 2–3 (L)
Schalke away
4 played · 1W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 1.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 24 Oct 2026 · Fc Cologne · 0–0 (D)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Freiburg · 1–2 (L)
- 11 Sept 2026 · Union Berlin · 3–1 (W)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Augsburg · 0–3 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Hoffenheim vs Schalke: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51.0%Under 49.0%
- Both teams score
- 51.9%No 48.1%
- Predicted goals
- 1.76 – 0.96Total 2.72 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 38% · 17%Hoffenheim · Schalke
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (11.9%), but more scorelines end in Hoffenheim winning, so that is the most likely result (55.3%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76.2% | 23.8% |
| 2.5 | 51.0% | 49.0% |
| 3.5 | 29.0% | 71.0% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Hoffenheim to score 1.76 goals and Schalke 0.96. Its ratings have Hoffenheim scoring at 1.17 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 1.08 times, against 0.68 and 0.90 for Schalke. Full methodology.
Questions about Hoffenheim vs Schalke
What was the Hoffenheim vs Schalke result?
Hoffenheim 2–1 Schalke at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Hoffenheim vs Schalke?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-07T14:51:33.359133+00:00, before kickoff, gave Hoffenheim 55.2%, a draw 25.1% and Schalke 19.7%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Hoffenheim vs Schalke?
The forecast published at 2026-11-08T16:21:20.913477+00:00 estimated 1.76 goals for Hoffenheim and 0.96 for Schalke (2.72 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (11.9%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-08
- Matches used
- 3,651
- Model version
- dc-v4-a3c445bd576c
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Bundesliga season outlook →