La Liga · Gameweek 12 · Archived pre-match analysis
Sevilla 0–0 Alaves
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Sevilla 47.4%
La Liga online record: 26 of 41 most likely results correct (63%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/41 (41%). See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Draw a 26.0% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Sevilla. The result did not match that outcome. The final score was outside the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 6 Nov 2026, 17:05 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Sevilla are sixth in La Liga with 17 points from 11 matches, while Alaves are 11th with 12 points. Sevilla’s recent form is LWLDL, compared with Alaves’ LDLLD. Sevilla have won 8 of 20 meetings, Alaves 5, with 7 draws; the last meeting ended 1-1. Sevilla have won 3 of 5 at home, while Alaves have drawn 2 and lost 3 of 5 away.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Sevilla at home
4 played · 2W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.3 scored · 1.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 26 Oct 2026 · Osasuna · 2–0 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Barcelona · 1–3 (L)
- 11 Sept 2026 · Valencia · 1–0 (W)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Atletico Madrid · 1–3 (L)
Alaves away
4 played · 0W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 2.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Barcelona · 1–6 (L)
- 18 Oct 2026 · Celta Vigo · 1–2 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Athletic Club · 0–0 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Racing Santander · 1–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Sevilla vs Alaves: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48.6%Under 51.4%
- Both teams score
- 52.2%No 47.8%
- Predicted goals
- 1.53 – 1.08Total 2.62 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 34% · 22%Sevilla · Alaves
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (12.4%), but more scorelines end in Sevilla winning, so that is the most likely result (47.4%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73.9% | 26.1% |
| 2.5 | 48.6% | 51.4% |
| 3.5 | 26.8% | 73.2% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Sevilla to score 1.53 goals and Alaves 1.08. Its ratings have Sevilla scoring at 1.03 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 1.05 times, against 0.93 and 1.00 for Alaves. Full methodology.
Questions about Sevilla vs Alaves
What was the Sevilla vs Alaves result?
Sevilla 0–0 Alaves at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Sevilla vs Alaves?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-05T15:50:25.324197+00:00, before kickoff, gave Sevilla 47.4%, a draw 26.0% and Alaves 26.5%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Sevilla vs Alaves?
The forecast published at 2026-11-06T17:05:53.738048+00:00 estimated 1.53 goals for Sevilla and 1.08 for Alaves (2.62 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (12.4%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-06
- Matches used
- 4,559
- Model version
- dc-v4-e74382904fa4
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the La Liga season outlook →