La Liga · Gameweek 12 · Archived pre-match analysis
Malaga 1–2 Racing Santander
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Malaga 47.0%
La Liga online record: 26 of 41 most likely results correct (63%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/41 (41%). See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Racing Santander a 29.7% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Malaga. The result did not match that outcome. The final score ranked #3 in the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 7 Nov 2026, 10:05 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Malaga are 20th on 5 points after 11 matches; Racing Santander are 16th on 11. In their last 5 league matches Malaga won 0 and Racing Santander won 1.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Malaga at home
4 played · 0W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 2.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 18 Oct 2026 · Real Sociedad · 2–5 (L)
- 9 Oct 2026 · Espanyol · 1–1 (D)
- 17 Sept 2026 · Villarreal · 1–3 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Levante · 0–0 (D)
Racing Santander away
4 played · 0W · 0D · 4L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 4.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 18 Oct 2026 · Osasuna · 0–2 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Celta Vigo · 0–5 (L)
- 16 Sept 2026 · Barcelona · 2–7 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Rayo Vallecano · 2–3 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Malaga vs Racing Santander: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63.1%Under 36.9%
- Both teams score
- 64.0%No 36.0%
- Predicted goals
- 1.83 – 1.42Total 3.25 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 24% · 16%Malaga · Racing Santander
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (10.4%), but more scorelines end in Malaga winning, so that is the most likely result (47.0%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83.8% | 16.2% |
| 2.5 | 63.1% | 36.9% |
| 3.5 | 40.9% | 59.1% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Malaga to score 1.83 goals and Racing Santander 1.42. Its ratings have Malaga scoring at 0.78 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 1.20 times, against 1.07 and 1.57 for Racing Santander. Full methodology.
Questions about Malaga vs Racing Santander
What was the Malaga vs Racing Santander result?
Malaga 1–2 Racing Santander at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Malaga vs Racing Santander?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-06T12:58:05.522157+00:00, before kickoff, gave Malaga 47.1%, a draw 23.2% and Racing Santander 29.8%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Malaga vs Racing Santander?
The forecast published at 2026-11-07T10:05:04.580095+00:00 estimated 1.83 goals for Malaga and 1.42 for Racing Santander (3.25 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (10.4%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-07
- Matches used
- 4,560
- Model version
- dc-v4-5374fa1bcab0
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the La Liga season outlook →