La Liga · Gameweek 12 · Archived pre-match analysis
Espanyol 0–0 Deportivo La Coruna
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Espanyol 40.8%
La Liga online record: 26 of 41 most likely results correct (63%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/41 (41%). See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Draw a 28.1% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Espanyol. The result did not match that outcome. The final score ranked #4 in the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 7 Nov 2026, 14:51 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Espanyol are 14th on 11 points after 11 matches; Deportivo La Coruna are 8th on 14. In their last 5 league matches Espanyol won 1 and Deportivo La Coruna won 1.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Espanyol at home
3 played · 0W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.7 scored · 1.7 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Atletico Madrid · 0–1 (L)
- 18 Sept 2026 · Elche · 1–3 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Sevilla · 1–1 (D)
Deportivo La Coruna away
4 played · 1W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.5 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 24 Oct 2026 · Atletico Madrid · 0–1 (L)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Real Sociedad · 2–3 (L)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Getafe · 1–1 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Villarreal · 3–2 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruna: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43.6%Under 56.4%
- Both teams score
- 49.4%No 50.6%
- Predicted goals
- 1.31 – 1.11Total 2.42 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 33% · 27%Espanyol · Deportivo La Coruna
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (13.3%), but more scorelines end in Espanyol winning, so that is the most likely result (40.8%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70.0% | 30.0% |
| 2.5 | 43.6% | 56.4% |
| 3.5 | 22.6% | 77.4% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Espanyol to score 1.31 goals and Deportivo La Coruna 1.11. Its ratings have Espanyol scoring at 0.92 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 0.98 times, against 1.02 and 0.96 for Deportivo La Coruna. Full methodology.
Questions about Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruna
What was the Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruna result?
Espanyol 0–0 Deportivo La Coruna at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruna?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-06T12:58:05.522157+00:00, before kickoff, gave Espanyol 40.9%, a draw 27.9% and Deportivo La Coruna 31.2%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruna?
The forecast published at 2026-11-07T14:51:21.573506+00:00 estimated 1.31 goals for Espanyol and 1.11 for Deportivo La Coruna (2.42 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (13.3%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-07
- Matches used
- 4,560
- Model version
- dc-v4-f0d06f709edd
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the La Liga season outlook →