La Liga · Gameweek 12 · Archived pre-match analysis
Osasuna 1–1 Athletic Club
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Athletic Club 36.1%
La Liga online record: 26 of 41 most likely results correct (63%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/41 (41%). Athletic Club: 3 of 5. See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Draw a 28.6% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Athletic Club. The result did not match that outcome. The final score ranked #1 in the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 7 Nov 2026, 14:51 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Osasuna are 15th on 11 points after 11 matches; Athletic Club are 7th on 15. In 34 La Liga meetings since 2005-06, Osasuna won 8, Athletic Club won 17 and 9 were drawn. They last met on 21 Apr 2026: Athletic Club 1–0 Osasuna. In their last 5 league matches Osasuna won 1 and Athletic Club won 2.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Osasuna at home
4 played · 2W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 18 Oct 2026 · Racing Santander · 2–0 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Rayo Vallecano · 1–1 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Espanyol · 0–2 (L)
- 31 Aug 2026 · Getafe · 1–0 (W)
Athletic Club away
4 played · 1W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 21 Oct 2026 · Levante · 1–3 (L)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Valencia · 0–0 (D)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Celta Vigo · 2–0 (W)
- 27 Aug 2026 · Barcelona · 0–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Osasuna vs Athletic Club: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42.4%Under 57.6%
- Both teams score
- 48.7%No 51.3%
- Predicted goals
- 1.18 – 1.20Total 2.37 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 30% · 31%Osasuna · Athletic Club
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (13.5%), but more scorelines end in Athletic Club winning, so that is the most likely result (36.1%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69.0% | 31.0% |
| 2.5 | 42.4% | 57.6% |
| 3.5 | 21.6% | 78.4% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Osasuna to score 1.18 goals and Athletic Club 1.20. Its ratings have Osasuna scoring at 0.93 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 1.04 times, against 1.04 and 0.85 for Athletic Club. Full methodology.
Questions about Osasuna vs Athletic Club
What was the Osasuna vs Athletic Club result?
Osasuna 1–1 Athletic Club at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-06T17:05:53.738048+00:00, before kickoff, gave Osasuna 35.3%, a draw 28.5% and Athletic Club 36.2%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
The forecast published at 2026-11-07T14:51:21.573506+00:00 estimated 1.18 goals for Osasuna and 1.20 for Athletic Club (2.37 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (13.5%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-07
- Matches used
- 4,560
- Model version
- dc-v4-f0d06f709edd
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the La Liga season outlook →