La Liga · Gameweek 12 · Archived pre-match analysis
Valencia 0–3 Real Madrid
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Real Madrid 57.2%
La Liga online record: 26 of 41 most likely results correct (63%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/41 (41%). See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Real Madrid a 57.2% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Real Madrid. The result matched that outcome. The final score was outside the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 7 Nov 2026, 19:07 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Valencia are 19th on 9 points after 11 matches; Real Madrid are 3rd on 27. In 42 La Liga meetings since 2005-06, Valencia won 9, Real Madrid won 24 and 9 were drawn. They last met on 8 Feb 2026: Valencia 0–2 Real Madrid. In their last 5 league matches Valencia won 1 and Real Madrid won 4.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Valencia at home
4 played · 0W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 2.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 24 Oct 2026 · Villarreal · 1–2 (L)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Athletic Club · 0–0 (D)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Real Sociedad · 2–3 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Barcelona · 0–5 (L)
Real Madrid away
5 played · 3W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 1 Nov 2026 · Racing Santander · 3–0 (W)
- 25 Oct 2026 · Barcelona · 2–1 (W)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Atletico Madrid · 1–2 (L)
- 15 Sept 2026 · Elche · 3–2 (W)
- 4 Sept 2026 · Real Betis · 0–1 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Valencia vs Real Madrid: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50.5%Under 49.5%
- Both teams score
- 50.3%No 49.7%
- Predicted goals
- 0.92 – 1.78Total 2.69 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 17% · 40%Valencia · Real Madrid
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 0–1, happens only 11.6% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75.4% | 24.6% |
| 2.5 | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| 3.5 | 28.5% | 71.5% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Valencia to score 0.92 goals and Real Madrid 1.78. Its ratings have Valencia scoring at 0.91 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 0.98 times, against 1.64 and 0.68 for Real Madrid. Full methodology.
Questions about Valencia vs Real Madrid
What was the Valencia vs Real Madrid result?
Valencia 0–3 Real Madrid at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Valencia vs Real Madrid?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-06T17:05:53.738048+00:00, before kickoff, gave Valencia 19.0%, a draw 23.7% and Real Madrid 57.2%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Valencia vs Real Madrid?
The forecast published at 2026-11-07T19:07:05.175187+00:00 estimated 0.92 goals for Valencia and 1.78 for Real Madrid (2.69 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 0–1 (11.6%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-07
- Matches used
- 4,562
- Model version
- dc-v4-3685fc86e341
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the La Liga season outlook →