La Liga · Gameweek 12 · Archived pre-match analysis
Elche 0–2 Real Betis
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Real Betis 38.1%
La Liga online record: 26 of 41 most likely results correct (63%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/41 (41%). See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Real Betis a 38.1% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Real Betis. The result matched that outcome. The final score was outside the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 8 Nov 2026, 12:05 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Elche are 17th on 10 points after 11 matches; Real Betis are 4th on 23. In 10 La Liga meetings since 2013-14, Elche won 2, Real Betis won 5 and 3 were drawn. They last met on 12 May 2026: Real Betis 2–1 Elche. In their last 5 league matches Elche won 2 and Real Betis won 2.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Elche at home
4 played · 0W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 1 Nov 2026 · Valencia · 0–1 (L)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Celta Vigo · 0–0 (D)
- 15 Sept 2026 · Real Madrid · 2–3 (L)
- 7 Sept 2026 · Real Sociedad · 2–3 (L)
Real Betis away
4 played · 1W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.3 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 25 Oct 2026 · Celta Vigo · 0–0 (D)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Deportivo La Coruna · 1–1 (D)
- 14 Sept 2026 · Villarreal · 2–1 (W)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Levante · 2–5 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Elche vs Real Betis: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53.0%Under 47.0%
- Both teams score
- 57.1%No 42.9%
- Predicted goals
- 1.37 – 1.42Total 2.80 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 24% · 25%Elche · Real Betis
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (12.4%), but more scorelines end in Real Betis winning, so that is the most likely result (38.1%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77.3% | 22.8% |
| 2.5 | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| 3.5 | 30.7% | 69.3% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Elche to score 1.37 goals and Real Betis 1.42. Its ratings have Elche scoring at 1.01 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 1.06 times, against 1.21 and 0.92 for Real Betis. Full methodology.
Questions about Elche vs Real Betis
What was the Elche vs Real Betis result?
Elche 0–2 Real Betis at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Elche vs Real Betis?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-07T10:05:04.580095+00:00, before kickoff, gave Elche 35.9%, a draw 26.0% and Real Betis 38.0%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Elche vs Real Betis?
The forecast published at 2026-11-08T12:05:12.320528+00:00 estimated 1.37 goals for Elche and 1.42 for Real Betis (2.80 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (12.4%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-08
- Matches used
- 4,564
- Model version
- dc-v4-25f00436544d
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the La Liga season outlook →