La Liga · Gameweek 12 · Archived pre-match analysis
Real Sociedad 1–0 Rayo Vallecano
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Real Sociedad 50.0%
La Liga online record: 26 of 41 most likely results correct (63%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/41 (41%). See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Real Sociedad a 50.0% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Real Sociedad. The result matched that outcome. The final score ranked #2 in the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 8 Nov 2026, 12:05 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Real Sociedad are 5th on 19 points after 11 matches; Rayo Vallecano are 14th on 12. In 22 La Liga meetings since 2011-12, Real Sociedad won 8, Rayo Vallecano won 6 and 8 were drawn. They last met on 26 Apr 2026: Rayo Vallecano 3–3 Real Sociedad. In their last 5 league matches Real Sociedad won 4 and Rayo Vallecano won 2.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Real Sociedad at home
5 played · 3W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 25 Oct 2026 · Levante · 2–1 (W)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Deportivo La Coruna · 3–2 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Atletico Madrid · 0–3 (L)
- 3 Sept 2026 · Celta Vigo · 0–0 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Espanyol · 2–1 (W)
Rayo Vallecano away
4 played · 0W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.3 scored · 2.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Oct 2026 · Getafe · 1–1 (D)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Osasuna · 1–1 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Real Madrid · 1–4 (L)
- 31 Aug 2026 · Barcelona · 2–5 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50.1%Under 49.9%
- Both teams score
- 52.8%No 47.2%
- Predicted goals
- 1.62 – 1.06Total 2.68 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 35% · 20%Real Sociedad · Rayo Vallecano
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (12.2%), but more scorelines end in Real Sociedad winning, so that is the most likely result (50.0%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75.2% | 24.8% |
| 2.5 | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| 3.5 | 28.1% | 71.9% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Real Sociedad to score 1.62 goals and Rayo Vallecano 1.06. Its ratings have Real Sociedad scoring at 1.16 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 1.04 times, against 0.92 and 0.94 for Rayo Vallecano. Full methodology.
Questions about Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano
What was the Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano result?
Real Sociedad 1–0 Rayo Vallecano at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-07T14:51:21.573506+00:00, before kickoff, gave Real Sociedad 50.2%, a draw 25.4% and Rayo Vallecano 24.3%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano?
The forecast published at 2026-11-08T12:05:12.320528+00:00 estimated 1.62 goals for Real Sociedad and 1.06 for Rayo Vallecano (2.68 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (12.2%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-08
- Matches used
- 4,564
- Model version
- dc-v4-25f00436544d
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the La Liga season outlook →