La Liga · Gameweek 12 · Archived pre-match analysis
Celta Vigo 0–0 Levante
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Celta Vigo 52.4%
La Liga online record: 26 of 41 most likely results correct (63%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/41 (41%). Levante: 3 of 5. See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Draw a 24.2% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Celta Vigo. The result did not match that outcome. The final score was outside the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 8 Nov 2026, 16:20 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Celta Vigo are 12th in La Liga with 12 points, while Levante are 17th with 10 points. Celta Vigo’s recent form is LDWDW, compared with Levante’s LLWDD. Celta Vigo lead the head-to-head record with 12 wins to Levante’s 6 across 22 meetings, though Levante won the last meeting 3-2 on 12 May 2026. Celta Vigo have two wins in six at home, while Levante have no away wins in six.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Celta Vigo at home
5 played · 2W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 25 Oct 2026 · Real Betis · 0–0 (D)
- 18 Oct 2026 · Alaves · 2–1 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Racing Santander · 5–0 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Malaga · 1–1 (D)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Athletic Club · 0–2 (L)
Levante away
4 played · 0W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 25 Oct 2026 · Real Sociedad · 1–2 (L)
- 16 Oct 2026 · Deportivo La Coruna · 1–1 (D)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Villarreal · 1–3 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Malaga · 0–0 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Celta Vigo vs Levante: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55.2%Under 44.8%
- Both teams score
- 56.3%No 43.7%
- Predicted goals
- 1.77 – 1.12Total 2.89 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 33% · 17%Celta Vigo · Levante
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (11.4%), but more scorelines end in Celta Vigo winning, so that is the most likely result (52.4%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78.8% | 21.2% |
| 2.5 | 55.2% | 44.8% |
| 3.5 | 32.8% | 67.2% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Celta Vigo to score 1.77 goals and Levante 1.12. Its ratings have Celta Vigo scoring at 1.04 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 0.93 times, against 1.08 and 1.16 for Levante. Full methodology.
Questions about Celta Vigo vs Levante
What was the Celta Vigo vs Levante result?
Celta Vigo 0–0 Levante at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Celta Vigo vs Levante?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-07T14:51:21.573506+00:00, before kickoff, gave Celta Vigo 52.6%, a draw 24.0% and Levante 23.4%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Celta Vigo vs Levante?
The forecast published at 2026-11-08T16:20:58.178610+00:00 estimated 1.77 goals for Celta Vigo and 1.12 for Levante (2.89 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (11.4%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-08
- Matches used
- 4,565
- Model version
- dc-v4-41b39f875aae
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the La Liga season outlook →