La Liga · Gameweek 12 · Archived pre-match analysis
Villarreal 2–0 Getafe
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Villarreal 58.4%
La Liga online record: 26 of 41 most likely results correct (63%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/41 (41%). See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Villarreal a 58.4% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Villarreal. The result matched that outcome. The final score ranked #2 in the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 8 Nov 2026, 16:20 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Villarreal are 11th on 12 points after 11 matches; Getafe are 15th on 12. In 38 La Liga meetings since 2005-06, Villarreal won 20, Getafe won 9 and 9 were drawn. They last met on 14 Feb 2026: Getafe 2–1 Villarreal. In their last 5 league matches Villarreal won 2 and Getafe won 2.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Villarreal at home
5 played · 1W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 30 Oct 2026 · Espanyol · 0–1 (L)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Elche · 0–0 (D)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Levante · 3–1 (W)
- 14 Sept 2026 · Real Betis · 1–2 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Deportivo La Coruna · 2–3 (L)
Getafe away
4 played · 0W · 0D · 4L
Goals per match: 0.0 scored · 2.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 25 Oct 2026 · Athletic Club · 0–4 (L)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Barcelona · 0–3 (L)
- 17 Sept 2026 · Real Betis · 0–1 (L)
- 31 Aug 2026 · Osasuna · 0–1 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Villarreal vs Getafe: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43.2%Under 56.8%
- Both teams score
- 43.3%No 56.7%
- Predicted goals
- 1.65 – 0.76Total 2.41 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 47% · 19%Villarreal · Getafe
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 1–0, happens only 14.5% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69.7% | 30.3% |
| 2.5 | 43.2% | 56.8% |
| 3.5 | 22.3% | 77.7% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Villarreal to score 1.65 goals and Getafe 0.76. Its ratings have Villarreal scoring at 1.37 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 0.94 times, against 0.72 and 0.82 for Getafe. Full methodology.
Questions about Villarreal vs Getafe
What was the Villarreal vs Getafe result?
Villarreal 2–0 Getafe at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Villarreal vs Getafe?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-07T14:51:21.573506+00:00, before kickoff, gave Villarreal 58.7%, a draw 24.9% and Getafe 16.4%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Villarreal vs Getafe?
The forecast published at 2026-11-08T16:20:58.178610+00:00 estimated 1.65 goals for Villarreal and 0.76 for Getafe (2.41 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–0 (14.5%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-08
- Matches used
- 4,565
- Model version
- dc-v4-41b39f875aae
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the La Liga season outlook →