La Liga · Gameweek 12 · Archived pre-match analysis
Atletico Madrid 1–2 Barcelona
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Barcelona 41.7%
La Liga online record: 26 of 41 most likely results correct (63%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/41 (41%). See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Barcelona a 41.7% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Barcelona. The result matched that outcome. The final score ranked #2 in the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 8 Nov 2026, 16:20 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Atletico Madrid are 3rd on 28 points after 11 matches; Barcelona are 1st on 30. In 42 La Liga meetings since 2005-06, Atletico Madrid won 8, Barcelona won 26 and 8 were drawn. They last met on 4 Apr 2026: Atletico Madrid 1–2 Barcelona. In their last 5 league matches Atletico Madrid won 5 and Barcelona won 4.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Atletico Madrid at home
3 played · 3W · 0D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.3 scored · 0.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 24 Oct 2026 · Deportivo La Coruna · 1–0 (W)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Real Madrid · 2–1 (W)
- 16 Sept 2026 · Osasuna · 4–0 (W)
Barcelona away
4 played · 4W · 0D · 0L
Goals per match: 4.3 scored · 1.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Real Betis · 5–2 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Sevilla · 3–1 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Levante · 4–2 (W)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Valencia · 5–0 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63.5%Under 36.5%
- Both teams score
- 65.1%No 34.9%
- Predicted goals
- 1.55 – 1.72Total 3.27 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 18% · 21%Atletico Madrid · Barcelona
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (10.5%), but more scorelines end in Barcelona winning, so that is the most likely result (41.7%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84.2% | 15.8% |
| 2.5 | 63.5% | 36.5% |
| 3.5 | 41.4% | 58.6% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Atletico Madrid to score 1.55 goals and Barcelona 1.72. Its ratings have Atletico Madrid scoring at 1.38 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 0.74 times, against 2.09 and 0.76 for Barcelona. Full methodology.
Questions about Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona
What was the Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona result?
Atletico Madrid 1–2 Barcelona at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-07T19:07:05.175187+00:00, before kickoff, gave Atletico Madrid 34.7%, a draw 23.7% and Barcelona 41.6%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona?
The forecast published at 2026-11-08T16:20:58.178610+00:00 estimated 1.55 goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.72 for Barcelona (3.27 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (10.5%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-08
- Matches used
- 4,565
- Model version
- dc-v4-41b39f875aae
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the La Liga season outlook →