Premier League · Gameweek 10 · Archived pre-match analysis
Everton 3–1 Coventry City
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Everton 57.5%
Premier League online record: 26 of 50 most likely results correct (52%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 24/50 (48%). Everton: 2 of 5. Coventry City: 3 of 5. See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Everton a 57.5% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Everton. The result matched that outcome. The final score was outside the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 6 Nov 2026, 17:05 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Everton are 7th on 13 points after 9 matches; Coventry City are 16th on 9. In their last 5 league matches Everton won 2 and Coventry City won 3.
Team news
Fantasy Premier League availability. Everton: Branthwaite (doubtful, 75% chance). Coventry City: Onyeka (doubtful, 50% chance), Thomas (doubtful, 50% chance), Woolfenden (injured), Amenda (injured), Eccles (injured), Wright (injured).
Expected goals are adjusted for absent players, weighted by each player's share of league minutes.
Home and away form
Everton at home
4 played · 2W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.3 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Chelsea · 0–2 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Ipswich · 1–0 (W)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Manchester United · 2–2 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Crystal Palace · 2–0 (W)
Coventry City away
4 played · 1W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 0.5 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Oct 2026 · Tottenham · 1–3 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Nottingham Forest · 1–0 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Manchester City · 0–1 (L)
- 21 Aug 2026 · Arsenal · 0–3 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Everton vs Coventry City: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50.5%Under 49.5%
- Both teams score
- 50.3%No 49.7%
- Predicted goals
- 1.79 – 0.91Total 2.70 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 40% · 17%Everton · Coventry City
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (11.6%), but more scorelines end in Everton winning, so that is the most likely result (57.5%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75.7% | 24.3% |
| 2.5 | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| 3.5 | 28.5% | 71.5% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches; after adjusting for players listed as injured, suspended or doubtful, it expects Everton to score 1.79 goals and Coventry City 0.91. Coventry City are newly promoted with 9 matches played, so their rating leans on a promoted-club prior and is less certain. Full methodology.
Questions about Everton vs Coventry City
What was the Everton vs Coventry City result?
Everton 3–1 Coventry City at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Everton vs Coventry City?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-05T15:49:56.736016+00:00, before kickoff, gave Everton 58.5%, a draw 24.3% and Coventry City 17.2%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Everton vs Coventry City?
The forecast published at 2026-11-06T17:05:18.106526+00:00 estimated 1.79 goals for Everton and 0.91 for Coventry City (2.70 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (11.6%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-06
- Matches used
- 4,540
- Model version
- dc-v4-57e7d7fc4492
- Data source
- Finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- Player availability comes from the Fantasy Premier League feed; changes after its last update and confirmed lineups are not included.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Premier League season outlook →