Premier League · Gameweek 10 · Archived pre-match analysis
Leeds United 1–0 Tottenham
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Leeds United 38.1%
Premier League online record: 26 of 50 most likely results correct (52%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 24/50 (48%). Leeds United: 3 of 5. Tottenham: 3 of 5. See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Leeds United a 38.1% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Leeds United. The result matched that outcome. The final score ranked #2 in the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 7 Nov 2026, 10:04 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Leeds United are 12th on 11 points after 9 matches; Tottenham are 9th on 12. In 8 Premier League meetings since 2020-21, Leeds United won 1, Tottenham won 6 and 1 was drawn. They last met on 11 May 2026: Tottenham 1–1 Leeds United. In their last 5 league matches Leeds United won 0 and Tottenham won 3.
Team news
Fantasy Premier League availability. Leeds United: Stach (doubtful, 50% chance), Okafor (doubtful, 50% chance), Calvert-Lewin (doubtful, 75% chance), Mateo Joseph (injured). Tottenham: Sávio (injured), Xavi (injured), Odobert (injured), Bergvall (injured), Mudryk (injured).
Expected goals are adjusted for absent players, weighted by each player's share of league minutes.
Home and away form
Leeds United at home
4 played · 1W · 3D · 0L
Goals per match: 1.5 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 18 Oct 2026 · Manchester United · 1–1 (D)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Crystal Palace · 0–0 (D)
- 14 Sept 2026 · Newcastle · 4–1 (W)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Brentford · 1–1 (D)
Tottenham away
4 played · 1W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 24 Oct 2026 · Chelsea · 2–0 (W)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Manchester United · 1–1 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Nottingham Forest · 0–0 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Brentford · 0–3 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Leeds United vs Tottenham: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42.5%Under 57.5%
- Both teams score
- 49.1%No 50.9%
- Predicted goals
- 1.25 – 1.13Total 2.38 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 32% · 29%Leeds United · Tottenham
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (13.9%), but more scorelines end in Leeds United winning, so that is the most likely result (38.1%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69.5% | 30.5% |
| 2.5 | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| 3.5 | 21.7% | 78.3% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches; after adjusting for players listed as injured, suspended or doubtful, it expects Leeds United to score 1.25 goals and Tottenham 1.13. Its ratings have Leeds United scoring at 0.96 times the model's Premier League average and conceding at 0.93 times, against 1.07 and 1.01 for Tottenham. Full methodology.
Questions about Leeds United vs Tottenham
What was the Leeds United vs Tottenham result?
Leeds United 1–0 Tottenham at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Leeds United vs Tottenham?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-06T08:49:25.487878+00:00, before kickoff, gave Leeds United 38.6%, a draw 29.2% and Tottenham 32.2%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Leeds United vs Tottenham?
The forecast published at 2026-11-07T10:04:40.810599+00:00 estimated 1.25 goals for Leeds United and 1.13 for Tottenham (2.38 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (13.9%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-07
- Matches used
- 4,541
- Model version
- dc-v4-750869ea16ac
- Data source
- Finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- Player availability comes from the Fantasy Premier League feed; changes after its last update and confirmed lineups are not included.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Premier League season outlook →