Premier League · Gameweek 10 · Archived pre-match analysis
Arsenal 1–0 Hull City
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Arsenal 63.9%
Premier League online record: 26 of 50 most likely results correct (52%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 24/50 (48%). Arsenal: 5 of 5. Hull City: 2 of 5. See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Arsenal a 63.9% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Arsenal. The result matched that outcome. The final score ranked #1 in the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 7 Nov 2026, 14:50 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Arsenal lead the Premier League with 24 points from 9 matches, while Hull City are 12th with 11 points. Arsenal’s recent form is WWWWL, compared with Hull City’s DDLDL. Arsenal have won 8 of 10 head-to-head meetings, including a 2-0 win on 11 Feb 2017. Arsenal have won all 4 home matches, while Hull City have won 1 of 4 away.
Team news
Fantasy Premier League availability. Arsenal: Saka (injured), Dowman (suspended). Hull City: Hughes (injured), Crooks (suspended), Matazo (injured), Gyabi (doubtful, 75% chance), Targett (injured), Morita (injured), Gourna-Douath (doubtful, 75% chance), Ansah (injured).
Expected goals are adjusted for absent players, weighted by each player's share of league minutes.
Home and away form
Arsenal at home
4 played · 4W · 0D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.3 scored · 0.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 24 Oct 2026 · Everton · 2–0 (W)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Leeds United · 2–1 (W)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Chelsea · 2–1 (W)
- 21 Aug 2026 · Coventry City · 3–0 (W)
Hull City away
4 played · 1W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 1.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Fulham · 0–1 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Newcastle · 1–2 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Chelsea · 2–2 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Coventry City · 1–0 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Arsenal vs Hull City: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 39.2%Under 60.8%
- Both teams score
- 36.1%No 63.9%
- Predicted goals
- 1.68 – 0.57Total 2.25 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 56% · 19%Arsenal · Hull City
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 1–0, happens only 17.0% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66.5% | 33.5% |
| 2.5 | 39.2% | 60.8% |
| 3.5 | 19.1% | 80.9% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches; after adjusting for players listed as injured, suspended or doubtful, it expects Arsenal to score 1.68 goals and Hull City 0.57. Hull City are newly promoted with 9 matches played, so their rating leans on a promoted-club prior and is less certain. Full methodology.
Questions about Arsenal vs Hull City
What was the Arsenal vs Hull City result?
Arsenal 1–0 Hull City at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Arsenal vs Hull City?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-06T12:57:42.328388+00:00, before kickoff, gave Arsenal 63.2%, a draw 24.7% and Hull City 12.1%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Arsenal vs Hull City?
The forecast published at 2026-11-07T14:50:25.361856+00:00 estimated 1.68 goals for Arsenal and 0.57 for Hull City (2.25 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–0 (17.0%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-07
- Matches used
- 4,541
- Model version
- dc-v4-751c288dedcb
- Data source
- Finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- Player availability comes from the Fantasy Premier League feed; changes after its last update and confirmed lineups are not included.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Premier League season outlook →