Premier League

Premier League · Gameweek 10 · Archived pre-match analysis

Nottingham Forest 3–1 Manchester City

Full time

Nottingham Forest

3–1Sat 7 Nov, 17:30 GMT

Manchester City

Published pre-match forecast23%27%51%

1 · Nottingham Forest22.7%

X · Draw26.8%

2 · Manchester City50.6%

Forecast published Sat 7 Nov, 14:50

Published model: Manchester City 50.6%

Premier League online record: 26 of 50 most likely results correct (52%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 24/50 (48%). Nottingham Forest: 3 of 5. Manchester City: 2 of 5. See every prediction ›

Venue: City Ground, Nottingham · GB

Result vs our prediction

Before kickoff, the published model gave Nottingham Forest a 22.7% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Manchester City. The result did not match that outcome. The final score was outside the five most likely published scorelines.

Snapshot recorded 7 Nov 2026, 14:50 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.

Prediction used in our model record

Recorded Fri 6 Nov, 17:05 GMT before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.

Fixed prediction for the model record23%27%51%

See the full prediction record

Pre-match context

Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.

Nottingham Forest are 19th on 6 points after 9 matches; Manchester City are 2nd on 21. In 8 Premier League meetings since 2022-23, Nottingham Forest won 1, Manchester City won 5 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 4 Mar 2026: Manchester City 2–2 Nottingham Forest. In their last 5 league matches Nottingham Forest won 0 and Manchester City won 3.

Team news

Nottingham Forest

Manchester City

Fantasy Premier League availability. Nottingham Forest: Savona (injured), Dominguez (injured), Igor Jesus (doubtful, 75% chance). Manchester City: Semenyo (injured).

Expected goals are adjusted for absent players, weighted by each player's share of league minutes.

Home and away form

Nottingham Forest at home

4 played · 0W · 1D · 3L

Goals per match: 0.0 scored · 0.8 conceded

Results in this sample

18 Oct 2026 · Arsenal · 0–1 (L)
19 Sept 2026 · Coventry City · 0–1 (L)
5 Sept 2026 · Tottenham · 0–0 (D)
22 Aug 2026 · Leeds United · 0–1 (L)

All Nottingham Forest results ›

Manchester City away

4 played · 3W · 0D · 1L

Goals per match: 2.3 scored · 0.8 conceded

Results in this sample

24 Oct 2026 · Aston Villa · 1–2 (L)
11 Oct 2026 · Liverpool · 3–0 (W)
13 Sept 2026 · Manchester United · 1–0 (W)
28 Aug 2026 · Crystal Palace · 4–1 (W)

All Manchester City results ›

Sample coverage

Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City: attack and defence ratings

Nottingham Forest attack0.94×

Manchester City attack1.52×

Nottingham Forest goals conceded0.92×

Manchester City goals conceded0.70×

Nottingham Forest score at 0.94× and concede at 0.92× the model's average club rate; Manchester City score at 1.52× and concede at 0.70×. 1.00× is average (the marked line). For defence, lower is better. Ratings come from past results before home advantage and team news are applied.

Published pre-match goal probabilities

Over 2.5 goals: 46.8%Under 53.2%
Both teams score: 50.1%No 49.9%
Predicted goals: 0.97 – 1.57Total 2.55 · model, not shot xG
Clean sheet: 21% · 38%Nottingham Forest · Manchester City

Most likely scores

1–112.7%

0–111.6%

0–29.7%

1–29.4%

0–08.6%

1–1 is the most likely single score (12.7%), but more scorelines end in Manchester City winning, so that is the most likely result (50.6%).

All goal lines and definitions

Total goals line	Over probability	Under probability
1.5	73.0%	27.0%
2.5	46.8%	53.2%
3.5	25.3%	74.8%

Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.

Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.

90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.

Recent meetings

Full head-to-head ›

4 Mar 2026Manchester City 2–2 Nottingham Forest

27 Dec 2025Nottingham Forest 1–2 Manchester City

8 Mar 2025Nottingham Forest 1–0 Manchester City

4 Dec 2024Manchester City 3–0 Nottingham Forest

28 Apr 2024Nottingham Forest 0–2 Manchester City

23 Sept 2023Manchester City 2–0 Nottingham Forest

Model context and limitations

The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches; after adjusting for players listed as injured, suspended or doubtful, it expects Nottingham Forest to score 0.97 goals and Manchester City 1.57. Its ratings have Nottingham Forest scoring at 0.94 times the model's Premier League average and conceding at 0.92 times, against 1.52 and 0.70 for Manchester City. Full methodology.

Questions about Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City

What was the Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City result?

Nottingham Forest 3–1 Manchester City at full time. Scores cover regular time only.

What was our pre-match prediction for Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City?

The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-06T17:05:18.106526+00:00, before kickoff, gave Nottingham Forest 22.6%, a draw 26.8% and Manchester City 50.6%. Probabilities are not guarantees.

What were the published pre-match expected goals for Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City?

The forecast published at 2026-11-07T14:50:25.361856+00:00 estimated 0.97 goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.57 for Manchester City (2.55 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (12.7%).

Embed this prediction on your site

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<iframe src="https://footballedgelab.com/embed/matches/475/nott-m-forest-vs-manchester-city" title="Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City prediction" width="100%" height="216" style="border:0;width:100%;max-width:520px" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font:13px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;margin:4px 0 16px"><a href="https://footballedgelab.com/matches/475/nott-m-forest-vs-manchester-city">Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City prediction</a> from Football Edge Lab</p>

Evidence and data sources

Results up to: 2026-11-07
Matches used: 4,541
Model version: dc-v4-751c288dedcb
Data source: Finished Premier League scores
Limitations: Player availability comes from the Fantasy Premier League feed; changes after its last update and confirmed lineups are not included.

Data updated 7 Nov 2026, 14:50 UTC · Analysis updated 2 Nov 2026, 15:35 UTC. A published pre-24h prediction is stored in the immutable live record. Regular time only.

Source and method

Keep going

Explore how upcoming results change the Premier League season outlook →

All gameweek 10 results and predictions Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City head-to-head record (9 meetings)Nottingham Forest predictions and results Manchester City predictions and results How the Dixon–Coles score model works Do weather, rest days and consecutive away games improve predictions?Prediction record Premier League Goals: Over 2.5 and Both Teams to Score Does Home Advantage Still Matter in the Premier League?