Premier League · Gameweek 10 · Archived pre-match analysis
Crystal Palace 1–3 Liverpool
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Liverpool 52.0%
Premier League online record: 26 of 50 most likely results correct (52%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 24/50 (48%). Crystal Palace: 5 of 5. Liverpool: 4 of 5. See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Liverpool a 52.0% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Liverpool. The result matched that outcome. The final score was outside the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 8 Nov 2026, 12:04 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Crystal Palace are 19th on 7 points, while Liverpool are sixth on 15 points. Palace’s recent form is LLLWD, compared with Liverpool’s LWWLW. Liverpool lead the head-to-head record with 16 wins to Palace’s 6 across 26 meetings, including a 3-1 win on 25 Apr 2026. Palace have won 1 of 4 at home, while Liverpool are unbeaten away with 3 wins and 1 draw.
Team news
Fantasy Premier League availability. Crystal Palace: Chadi Riad (injured), Sarr (injured), Mateta (suspended), Tomiyasu (injured). Liverpool: Jaros (injured), Frimpong (injured), Bradley (injured), Leoni (injured), Gravenberch (doubtful, 75% chance), Ekitiké (injured).
Expected goals are adjusted for absent players, weighted by each player's share of league minutes.
Home and away form
Crystal Palace at home
4 played · 1W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.5 scored · 2.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 25 Oct 2026 · Newcastle · 0–2 (L)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Nottingham Forest · 3–1 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Ipswich · 2–3 (L)
- 28 Aug 2026 · Manchester City · 1–4 (L)
Liverpool away
4 played · 3W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Brentford · 2–1 (W)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Bournemouth · 1–0 (W)
- 4 Sept 2026 · Ipswich · 2–0 (W)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Newcastle · 2–2 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57.3%Under 42.7%
- Both teams score
- 58.3%No 41.7%
- Predicted goals
- 1.17 – 1.82Total 2.98 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 16% · 31%Crystal Palace · Liverpool
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (11.3%), but more scorelines end in Liverpool winning, so that is the most likely result (52.0%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80.5% | 19.6% |
| 2.5 | 57.3% | 42.7% |
| 3.5 | 34.9% | 65.1% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches; after adjusting for players listed as injured, suspended or doubtful, it expects Crystal Palace to score 1.17 goals and Liverpool 1.82. Its ratings have Crystal Palace scoring at 0.92 times the model's Premier League average and conceding at 1.03 times, against 1.35 and 0.83 for Liverpool. Full methodology.
Questions about Crystal Palace vs Liverpool
What was the Crystal Palace vs Liverpool result?
Crystal Palace 1–3 Liverpool at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Crystal Palace vs Liverpool?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-07T10:04:40.810599+00:00, before kickoff, gave Crystal Palace 23.6%, a draw 24.3% and Liverpool 52.1%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Crystal Palace vs Liverpool?
The forecast published at 2026-11-08T12:04:38.286768+00:00 estimated 1.17 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.82 for Liverpool (2.98 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (11.3%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-08
- Matches used
- 4,545
- Model version
- dc-v4-91b57b96e7cf
- Data source
- Finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- Player availability comes from the Fantasy Premier League feed; changes after its last update and confirmed lineups are not included.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Premier League season outlook →