Premier League · Gameweek 10 · Archived pre-match analysis
Sunderland 1–0 Chelsea
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Sunderland 39.3%
Premier League online record: 26 of 50 most likely results correct (52%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 24/50 (48%). Sunderland: 3 of 5. Chelsea: 2 of 5. See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Sunderland a 39.3% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Sunderland. The result matched that outcome. The final score ranked #5 in the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 8 Nov 2026, 12:04 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Sunderland are 20th on 5 points after 9 matches; Chelsea are 4th on 16. In 24 Premier League meetings since 2005-06, Sunderland won 5, Chelsea won 18 and 1 was drawn. They last met on 24 May 2026: Sunderland 2–1 Chelsea. In their last 5 league matches Sunderland won 0 and Chelsea won 3.
Team news
Fantasy Premier League availability. Sunderland: Ballard (injured), Mukiele (doubtful, 75% chance), Alderete (suspended), Diarra (injured), Mundle (injured). Chelsea: Martinez (doubtful, 75% chance), Henderson (doubtful, 75% chance), James (injured), Hato (injured), Gittens (injured), Caicedo (doubtful, 75% chance), João Pedro (injured), Lacroix (injured), Anselmino (injured).
Expected goals are adjusted for absent players, weighted by each player's share of league minutes.
Home and away form
Sunderland at home
4 played · 1W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.3 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 25 Oct 2026 · Leeds United · 0–0 (D)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Brighton · 0–2 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Arsenal · 0–2 (L)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Fulham · 1–0 (W)
Chelsea away
4 played · 2W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.5 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Everton · 2–0 (W)
- 18 Sept 2026 · Brentford · 0–3 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Arsenal · 1–2 (L)
- 24 Aug 2026 · Fulham · 3–2 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Sunderland vs Chelsea: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62.6%Under 37.4%
- Both teams score
- 64.8%No 35.2%
- Predicted goals
- 1.65 – 1.58Total 3.23 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 21% · 19%Sunderland · Chelsea
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (10.9%), but more scorelines end in Sunderland winning, so that is the most likely result (39.3%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83.9% | 16.1% |
| 2.5 | 62.6% | 37.4% |
| 3.5 | 40.4% | 59.6% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches; after adjusting for players listed as injured, suspended or doubtful, it expects Sunderland to score 1.65 goals and Chelsea 1.58. Its ratings have Sunderland scoring at 0.84 times the model's Premier League average and conceding at 0.96 times, against 1.25 and 0.94 for Chelsea. Full methodology.
Questions about Sunderland vs Chelsea
What was the Sunderland vs Chelsea result?
Sunderland 1–0 Chelsea at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Sunderland vs Chelsea?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-07T10:04:40.810599+00:00, before kickoff, gave Sunderland 39.0%, a draw 24.6% and Chelsea 36.4%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Sunderland vs Chelsea?
The forecast published at 2026-11-08T12:04:38.286768+00:00 estimated 1.65 goals for Sunderland and 1.58 for Chelsea (3.23 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (10.9%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-08
- Matches used
- 4,545
- Model version
- dc-v4-91b57b96e7cf
- Data source
- Finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- Player availability comes from the Fantasy Premier League feed; changes after its last update and confirmed lineups are not included.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Premier League season outlook →