Premier League

Premier League · Gameweek 10 · Archived pre-match analysis

Ipswich 1–2 Bournemouth

Full time

Ipswich

1–2Sun 8 Nov, 14:00 GMT

Bournemouth

Published pre-match forecast27%24%50%

1 · Ipswich26.5%

X · Draw23.6%

2 · Bournemouth49.9%

Forecast published Sun 8 Nov, 12:04

Published model: Bournemouth 49.9%

Premier League online record: 26 of 50 most likely results correct (52%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 24/50 (48%). Ipswich: 2 of 5. Bournemouth: 4 of 5. See every prediction ›

Venue: Portman Road, Ipswich · GB

Result vs our prediction

Before kickoff, the published model gave Bournemouth a 49.9% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Bournemouth. The result matched that outcome. The final score ranked #2 in the five most likely published scorelines.

Snapshot recorded 8 Nov 2026, 12:04 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.

Prediction used in our model record

Recorded Sat 7 Nov, 10:04 GMT before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.

Fixed prediction for the model record26%24%50%

See the full prediction record

Pre-match context

Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.

Ipswich are 14th on 11 points after 9 matches, while Bournemouth are 9th on 12 points. Ipswich’s recent form is DDLWL, compared with Bournemouth’s WWWLL. The teams have split 2 meetings since 2024-25, with Bournemouth’s last meeting ending in a 2-1 Ipswich win on 2 Apr 2025. Ipswich have won 2 of 4 at home; Bournemouth have won 1 of 4 away.

Team news

Ipswich

Bournemouth

Fantasy Premier League availability. Ipswich: no players listed as injured, suspended or doubtful. Bournemouth: Milosavljević (injured), J.Araujo (injured), Scott (doubtful, 75% chance), Tóth.A (injured), Sanchez (injured).

Expected goals are adjusted for absent players, weighted by each player's share of league minutes.

Home and away form

Ipswich at home

4 played · 2W · 1D · 1L

Goals per match: 1.3 scored · 1.3 conceded

Results in this sample

23 Oct 2026 · Nottingham Forest · 1–1 (D)
10 Oct 2026 · Fulham · 2–1 (W)
4 Sept 2026 · Liverpool · 0–2 (L)
22 Aug 2026 · Sunderland · 2–1 (W)

All Ipswich results ›

Bournemouth away

4 played · 1W · 1D · 2L

Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 2.3 conceded

Results in this sample

25 Oct 2026 · Manchester United · 3–0 (W)
10 Oct 2026 · Chelsea · 1–5 (L)
5 Sept 2026 · Newcastle · 2–2 (D)
23 Aug 2026 · Manchester City · 1–2 (L)

All Bournemouth results ›

Sample coverage

Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.

Ipswich vs Bournemouth: attack and defence ratings

Ipswich attack0.92×

Bournemouth attack1.12×

Ipswich goals conceded1.37×

Bournemouth goals conceded0.95×

Ipswich score at 0.92× and concede at 1.37× the model's average club rate; Bournemouth score at 1.12× and concede at 0.95×. 1.00× is average (the marked line). For defence, lower is better. Ratings come from past results before home advantage and team news are applied.

Published pre-match goal probabilities

Over 2.5 goals: 62.2%Under 37.8%
Both teams score: 62.9%No 37.1%
Predicted goals: 1.33 – 1.88Total 3.21 · model, not shot xG
Clean sheet: 15% · 27%Ipswich · Bournemouth

Most likely scores

1–110.7%

1–29.5%

0–27.2%

0–17.0%

2–16.7%

1–1 is the most likely single score (10.7%), but more scorelines end in Bournemouth winning, so that is the most likely result (49.9%).

All goal lines and definitions

Total goals line	Over probability	Under probability
1.5	83.6%	16.4%
2.5	62.2%	37.8%
3.5	40.0%	60.0%

Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.

Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.

90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.

Recent meetings

2 Apr 2025Bournemouth 1–2 Ipswich

8 Dec 2024Ipswich 1–2 Bournemouth

Model context and limitations

The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches; after adjusting for players listed as injured, suspended or doubtful, it expects Ipswich to score 1.33 goals and Bournemouth 1.88. Ipswich are newly promoted with 9 matches played, so their rating leans on a promoted-club prior and is less certain. Full methodology.

Questions about Ipswich vs Bournemouth

What was the Ipswich vs Bournemouth result?

Ipswich 1–2 Bournemouth at full time. Scores cover regular time only.

What was our pre-match prediction for Ipswich vs Bournemouth?

The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-07T10:04:40.810599+00:00, before kickoff, gave Ipswich 26.3%, a draw 23.7% and Bournemouth 50.1%. Probabilities are not guarantees.

What were the published pre-match expected goals for Ipswich vs Bournemouth?

The forecast published at 2026-11-08T12:04:38.286768+00:00 estimated 1.33 goals for Ipswich and 1.88 for Bournemouth (3.21 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (10.7%).

Embed this prediction on your site

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<iframe src="https://footballedgelab.com/embed/matches/478/ipswich-vs-bournemouth" title="Ipswich vs Bournemouth prediction" width="100%" height="216" style="border:0;width:100%;max-width:520px" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font:13px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;margin:4px 0 16px"><a href="https://footballedgelab.com/matches/478/ipswich-vs-bournemouth">Ipswich vs Bournemouth prediction</a> from Football Edge Lab</p>

Evidence and data sources

Results up to: 2026-11-08
Matches used: 4,545
Model version: dc-v4-91b57b96e7cf
Data source: Finished Premier League scores
Limitations: Player availability comes from the Fantasy Premier League feed; changes after its last update and confirmed lineups are not included.

Data updated 8 Nov 2026, 12:04 UTC · Analysis updated 7 Nov 2026, 23:20 UTC. A published pre-24h prediction is stored in the immutable live record. Regular time only.

Source and method

Keep going

Explore how upcoming results change the Premier League season outlook →

All gameweek 10 results and predictions Ipswich predictions and results Bournemouth predictions and results How the Dixon–Coles score model works Do weather, rest days and consecutive away games improve predictions?Prediction record Premier League Goals: Over 2.5 and Both Teams to Score Does Home Advantage Still Matter in the Premier League?