Premier League · Gameweek 10 · Archived pre-match analysis
Brighton 2–0 Brentford
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Brighton 46.0%
Premier League online record: 26 of 50 most likely results correct (52%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 24/50 (48%). Brighton: 4 of 5. Brentford: 2 of 5. See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Brighton a 46.0% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Brighton. The result matched that outcome. The final score ranked #5 in the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 8 Nov 2026, 12:04 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Brighton are 3rd on 19 points after 9 matches; Brentford are 7th on 14. In 10 Premier League meetings since 2021-22, Brighton won 5, Brentford won 2 and 3 were drawn. They last met on 21 Feb 2026: Brentford 0–2 Brighton. In their last 5 league matches Brighton won 4 and Brentford won 2.
Team news
Fantasy Premier League availability. Brighton: F.Kadıoğlu (doubtful, 75% chance), Mitoma (injured), Yohanna (injured), Tzimas (injured), Ferguson (injured), Struijk (injured), Azeez (injured). Brentford: Henry (injured), Milambo (injured), Carvalho (injured), Dasilva (doubtful, 25% chance), Furo (injured).
Expected goals are adjusted for absent players, weighted by each player's share of league minutes.
Home and away form
Brighton at home
4 played · 3W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 3.3 scored · 0.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 18 Oct 2026 · Crystal Palace · 5–0 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Arsenal · 3–0 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Leeds United · 1–1 (D)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Aston Villa · 4–0 (W)
Brentford away
4 played · 0W · 4D · 0L
Goals per match: 1.5 scored · 1.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 25 Oct 2026 · Hull City · 1–1 (D)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Aston Villa · 2–2 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Bournemouth · 2–2 (D)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Leeds United · 1–1 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Brighton vs Brentford: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59.7%Under 40.3%
- Both teams score
- 61.7%No 38.3%
- Predicted goals
- 1.74 – 1.35Total 3.09 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 26% · 18%Brighton · Brentford
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (11.3%), but more scorelines end in Brighton winning, so that is the most likely result (46.0%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82.0% | 18.0% |
| 2.5 | 59.7% | 40.3% |
| 3.5 | 37.3% | 62.7% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches; after adjusting for players listed as injured, suspended or doubtful, it expects Brighton to score 1.74 goals and Brentford 1.35. Its ratings have Brighton scoring at 1.24 times the model's Premier League average and conceding at 0.86 times, against 1.17 and 0.92 for Brentford. Full methodology.
Questions about Brighton vs Brentford
What was the Brighton vs Brentford result?
Brighton 2–0 Brentford at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Brighton vs Brentford?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-07T10:04:40.810599+00:00, before kickoff, gave Brighton 45.8%, a draw 24.8% and Brentford 29.4%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Brighton vs Brentford?
The forecast published at 2026-11-08T12:04:38.286768+00:00 estimated 1.74 goals for Brighton and 1.35 for Brentford (3.09 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (11.3%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-08
- Matches used
- 4,545
- Model version
- dc-v4-91b57b96e7cf
- Data source
- Finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- Player availability comes from the Fantasy Premier League feed; changes after its last update and confirmed lineups are not included.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Premier League season outlook →