Premier League · Gameweek 10 · Archived pre-match analysis
Manchester United 4–4 Aston Villa
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Manchester United 38.1%
Premier League online record: 26 of 50 most likely results correct (52%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 24/50 (48%). Manchester United: 0 of 5. Aston Villa: 0 of 5. See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Draw a 23.8% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Manchester United. The result did not match that outcome. The final score was outside the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 8 Nov 2026, 16:20 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Manchester United are 18th in the Premier League with 7 points, while Aston Villa are 12th with 12 points. United’s recent form is LLDDD, compared with Villa’s DWWDW. United have won 25 of 36 head-to-head meetings, including the 3-1 last meeting on 15 Mar 2026. United’s home record is 1 win, 1 draw and 2 losses; Villa’s away record is 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss.
Team news
Fantasy Premier League availability. Manchester United: Baleba (injured), Dorgu (doubtful, 75% chance), Martinez (suspended), Shaw (injured), Rashford (injured), Ugarte (injured), Šeško (injured). Aston Villa: Cash (suspended), Onana (injured), Ruggeri (injured), Wan-Bissaka (doubtful, 50% chance).
Expected goals are adjusted for absent players, weighted by each player's share of league minutes.
Home and away form
Manchester United at home
4 played · 1W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.5 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 25 Oct 2026 · Bournemouth · 0–3 (L)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Tottenham · 1–1 (D)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Manchester City · 0–1 (L)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Ipswich · 5–2 (W)
Aston Villa away
4 played · 2W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 1.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Newcastle · 1–0 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Tottenham · 3–2 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Hull City · 0–0 (D)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Brighton · 0–4 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Manchester United vs Aston Villa: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65.7%Under 34.3%
- Both teams score
- 67.1%No 32.9%
- Predicted goals
- 1.69 – 1.69Total 3.38 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 18% · 18%Manchester United · Aston Villa
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (10.3%), but more scorelines end in Manchester United winning, so that is the most likely result (38.1%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85.7% | 14.3% |
| 2.5 | 65.7% | 34.3% |
| 3.5 | 43.8% | 56.2% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches; after adjusting for players listed as injured, suspended or doubtful, it expects Manchester United to score 1.69 goals and Aston Villa 1.69. Its ratings have Manchester United scoring at 1.13 times the model's Premier League average and conceding at 0.94 times, against 1.12 and 0.92 for Aston Villa. Full methodology.
Questions about Manchester United vs Aston Villa
What was the Manchester United vs Aston Villa result?
Manchester United 4–4 Aston Villa at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Manchester United vs Aston Villa?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-07T14:50:25.361856+00:00, before kickoff, gave Manchester United 37.9%, a draw 23.9% and Aston Villa 38.1%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Manchester United vs Aston Villa?
The forecast published at 2026-11-08T16:20:28.170003+00:00 estimated 1.69 goals for Manchester United and 1.69 for Aston Villa (3.38 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (10.3%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-08
- Matches used
- 4,545
- Model version
- dc-v4-562526f5fff4
- Data source
- Finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- Player availability comes from the Fantasy Premier League feed; changes after its last update and confirmed lineups are not included.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Premier League season outlook →