Premier League · Gameweek 10 · Archived pre-match analysis
Fulham 1–1 Newcastle
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Fulham 39.5%
Premier League online record: 26 of 50 most likely results correct (52%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 24/50 (48%). Fulham: 2 of 5. Newcastle: 1 of 5. See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Draw a 27.5% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Fulham. The result did not match that outcome. The final score ranked #1 in the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 7 Nov 2026, 14:50 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Fulham are 15th on 9 points after 9 matches; Newcastle are 13th on 11. In 28 Premier League meetings since 2005-06, Fulham won 12, Newcastle won 12 and 4 were drawn. They last met on 24 May 2026: Fulham 2–0 Newcastle. In their last 5 league matches Fulham won 2 and Newcastle won 2.
Team news
Fantasy Premier League availability. Fulham: Cairney (injured). Newcastle: Jaouen (injured), J.Ramsey (suspended), Joelinton (injured).
Expected goals are adjusted for absent players, weighted by each player's share of league minutes.
Home and away form
Fulham at home
4 played · 1W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.5 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Hull City · 1–0 (W)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Manchester United · 1–1 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Crystal Palace · 2–3 (L)
- 24 Aug 2026 · Chelsea · 2–3 (L)
Newcastle away
4 played · 2W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.5 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 25 Oct 2026 · Crystal Palace · 2–0 (W)
- 12 Oct 2026 · Coventry City · 1–4 (L)
- 14 Sept 2026 · Leeds United · 1–4 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Tottenham · 2–0 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Fulham vs Newcastle: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49.5%Under 50.5%
- Both teams score
- 54.6%No 45.4%
- Predicted goals
- 1.40 – 1.26Total 2.65 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 28% · 25%Fulham · Newcastle
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (13.1%), but more scorelines end in Fulham winning, so that is the most likely result (39.5%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| 2.5 | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| 3.5 | 27.5% | 72.5% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches; after adjusting for players listed as injured, suspended or doubtful, it expects Fulham to score 1.40 goals and Newcastle 1.26. Its ratings have Fulham scoring at 0.95 times the model's Premier League average and conceding at 0.92 times, against 1.17 and 0.98 for Newcastle. Full methodology.
Questions about Fulham vs Newcastle
What was the Fulham vs Newcastle result?
Fulham 1–1 Newcastle at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Fulham vs Newcastle?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-06T12:57:42.328388+00:00, before kickoff, gave Fulham 41.6%, a draw 27.9% and Newcastle 30.5%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Fulham vs Newcastle?
The forecast published at 2026-11-07T14:50:25.361856+00:00 estimated 1.40 goals for Fulham and 1.26 for Newcastle (2.65 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (13.1%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-07
- Matches used
- 4,541
- Model version
- dc-v4-751c288dedcb
- Data source
- Finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- Player availability comes from the Fantasy Premier League feed; changes after its last update and confirmed lineups are not included.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Premier League season outlook →